By Megan Sam
Water managers can now explore how lake conditions and water release strategies could affect Lake Okeechobee’s water quantity and quality, using two new web-based tools designed to support more proactive decision-making.
Co-developed by researchers from seven institutions, the Lake Okeechobee Optimization of Nutrients Exports (LOONE) Forecast and Planning tools were showcased at the Optimizing Solutions for Resilient Coasts summit in December 2025. Project co-leaders David Kaplan, Ph.D., of the University of Florida (UF) and Mauricio Arias, Ph.D., of the University of South Florida (USF) presented the tools resulting from two recently completed projects.
“Our goal is to provide actionable knowledge and co-develop tools to predict and manage harmful algal blooms in the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries,” Kaplan, an associate director of the UF Center for Coastal Solutions, said.
South Florida experiences near-annual outbreaks of harmful algal blooms (HAB) that cause fish kills and marine mammal deaths, threaten public health and cost billions in lost tourism. Managing the water that connects Lake Okeechobee to the downstream Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries is notoriously complex. Decision-makers must balance flood control, water supply and environmental protection in a system burdened by decades of accumulated nutrients.
To develop the tools, the research team studied how Lake Okeechobee, its watershed and downstream estuaries function as a single connected system, analyzing the physical, chemical and biological processes that influence water flow, nutrient loads and algal blooms.
From that work, the team built several water quality forecasting models to predict HAB risks up to two weeks in advance, giving managers more time to respond. They also found that optimizing Lake Okeechobee operations could reduce releases of phosphorus, nitrogen and phytoplankton to the estuaries by over 70%.
Working with water management agencies, the team co-developed two powerful web-based tools, one focused on short-term forecasts and the other on longer-term planning. The forecast tool provides historical data and two-week outlooks for water, nutrients and phytoplankton, while the planning tool allows users to test operational scenarios and see how flows, nutrient loads and algae may change over a year.
“These advances show how collaborative science, engineering and stakeholder engagement can support more resilient, transparent and adaptive management of Florida’s waters,” Arias said.
Project information: The Coupling Lake, Watershed, and Estuarine Models project was funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineering (USACE) Research and Development Center’s Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Program and was a partnership among the University of Florida (UF), the University of South Florida (USF), the Sanibel Captiva Conservation Foundation, North Carolina State University, and the USACE.
The St. Lucie Estuary and Watershed project was also funded by the USACE Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Program and was a collaboration among UF, USF and the South Florida Water Management District.
The projects were co-led by David Kaplan, Ph.D., professor at the UF Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment (ESSIE) and Mauricio Arias, Ph.D., associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at USF. UF project co-leads include Paloma Carton de Grammont, Ph.D., Water Institute; Wendy Graham, Ph.D., Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering; Lisa Krimsky, Ph.D., UF/IFAS Extension; Elise Morrison, Ph.D., ESSIE; Maitane Olabarrieta, Ph.D., ESSIE; and Ed Phlips, Ph.D., School of Forest, Fisheries and Geomatics Sciences.